Good morning

Nationwide HPI gave the market a lot of confidence yesterday and GBP seems to be back on the cards again after a few days of selling.

We are not going to fight the Wall St drive and appreciate its strength and remain with the trend. With this in mind the only option is for us to remain bearish for the USD, as we have been for many weeks.

We have had 2 or 3 days of hope for the USD but that was extremely short lived as you have seen.

British Airways are posting 2^nd Qtr results today and they are not expected to be great so keep an eye on that FTSE.

USD Index looks very weak again so lets stay with the trend.

CABLE

• After a solid break of the Head & Shoulder neckline, GBP has found its needed strength again.
• The previous right shoulder resistance is just ahead now at 1.6555 (WR1) and the temptation is to look for a short here with a stop above.
• This however is against the trend so be aware it’s a risky trade and GBP has been the strongest currency out there over the last 24 hours.
• The safest play for us would be to wait for the pullback and use the 4hr trigger for the next move higher.
• Let’s look for a pullback towards the 1.6460 region and buy off support.

July 31st 2009 Posted to Uncategorized | Comments (0) |  Email This Post

We are back in the room after the power cut.

July 30th 2009 Posted to Uncategorized | Comments (0) |  Email This Post

Good morning all

Dow is being extremely stubborn below 9,000. Will it rally from here? Who knows…Previous high at 9,111 so again I will be looking for a cheeky short ahead of this previous high incase we see a convincing double top on the 4 hr chart.

USD X had a good run yesterday making our EURUSD & USDCAD position work out very well. Look for USDX to hold support above its DP at 79.30 region. The 15min 50ma is just ahead and can be a stubborn MA to get passed. We really need to see a break of 79.55 for USD to have another good move higher.

CABLE

• We spoke at length about the MP yesterday and this is our major support we need to sidestep.
• Probably best we wait for a break here at 1.6335 for any short plays.
• We can always add on a 123 below if the CCI´s are too oversold at point of entry.
• We also need to be aware of any double bottom on the MP on 4hr chart. As soon as this trend reversal finishes on the 4hr chart we will have our neckline incase USD decides to play games with us and weaken again.
• Wont be looking at any long plays unless it gathers momentum back above the WP at 1.6440 region.

USDCAD

• Building nicely and still long with stop below 4hr 20ma.
• WP is offering 1^st major resistance at 1.0940 and would like to see a break out here for a real move higher.
• Let’s play the break but make sure the CCI´s aren’t too overbought at point of entry.
• The WP break would then clear the 4hr 50ma suggesting further USD strength across the board.
• Any move back below the 60min 50ma would suggest USD is weak again.

EURGBP

• Looks good with a potential golden cross looming on the 15min chart.
• At present we have a higher high and need this to change with a lower high and lower low to suggest a change in direction.
• 0.8560 will be the key area of support so lets wait for a 123 for any south play.

Verdict

• As it stands it’s a patient morning.

July 30th 2009 Posted to Uncategorized | Comments (0) |  Email This Post