The madness continues I don’t think I can remember a market like it. The reality is that the same accounts that were falling over them selves to sell last year and at the beginning of 2009 are now knocking everyone over to find some bonds and some yield. I continue to hear that newissues in HG world are flying out the door quicker than you can say “newissue the name is X and the guidance is Y”. We know its going to end in tears what we don’t know is when and what is the trigger? I still think it’s the central banks exit strategy and at some stage they are going to have to turn off the taps to the investment banks without upsetting mortgage holders and the all important equity markets. All I do know is that with every bail out whether it be the banks, medical insurance, cash for clunkers or anything else, at some stage it needs tobe paid for. The market is now fully pricing in a V shaped recovery iegrowth to return to what it was 2 years ago and with that house pricesetc. Well call me stupid but how is that possibly going to happenbearing in mind the governments increased debt burden, Northern Rock andfriends are no longer dumb enough to lend honest borrowers 125% mortgages on a self cert basis and contrary to the markets main streetare still losing their jobs and not spending on their credit cardsanymore. I’ll be honest the market is reminiscent of my teenage discoyears. There are a load of people on the dance floor freaking out to atune I don’t recognise, every now and then I step on the edge of it do a few basic moves, feel slightly self conscious because I don’t know thetune and step off it continuing to watch the freaks on it. That if youhaven’t guessed is my trading style at the moment. I am just really scared the music will stop and the lights will be turned on and whoknows what I will be left with! I don’t think there is any point sayingthis is a big week for data as the market ignores bad data and rallies at the good You carry on dancing I’ll stand at the bar with a beertapping my feet!

Mr P……

August 04th 2009 Posted to Reports | Comments (0) |  Email This Post

Good morning all

I hope you are all well today and made a few pips yesterday…

I had a little fun yesterday afternoon with USDCHF and am still long part of my position and looking to add.

USDCHF

• This beast is teasing and has now broken out of its triangle on the upside.
• As we stand this morning the price is resting on the DP and 60min 20ma, however the 15min 50ma is above and we need to be aware of this
• Purely as a technical play today the safest option would be to wait for the 15min 123 and look for the Golden Cross of the 15min moving averages.
• That would give us the lowest risk to the upside with all MA´s suggesting a strong move higher.
• For me 1.0954 is still the key level to break and for any long plays we must look to bank 75% of the position (as I did yesterday afternoon) ahead of this resistance and re open the trade again on the break.

CABLE

• The 4hr chart suggests strength is coming back into GBP with weak USD.
• The silver cross is setting up so a long opportunity is coming our way.
• As it stands this morning the MP at 1.6340 is holding as key resistance and the 60min and 4hr CCI´s are suggesting uptrends.
• Let’s look for a break of the MP to 1^st resistance at 1.6380 and then further with a rolling stop.

EURUSD

• Still heavily boxed in.
• With USDCHF trying to tease higher you would imagine EURUSD would make a little push lower and finally break the Daily 50ma.
• Lets not preempt this move and wait for a break.
• Key support levels are 1.3829 and 1.39.12
• Key resistance levels are 1.4016, 1.4041 & 1.4071
• If we see USDCHF make another move higher look lets look for a break below the WP for our 1^st entry.

GBPCHF

• Keep an eye on this…Look for a pullback to the MP and if holds and the 4hr trigger comes into play, look for a bounce off the 1.7675 region for a long trade

July 15th 2009 Posted to CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, Live Room Review, Reports, USD, forex | Comments (0) |  Email This Post

CABLE

• CABLE has drifted off from its major resistance at 1.4960.
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 60min 50ma.
• Looks best for a short play with stop above the DP at 1.4915
• Support at 1.4850 level and this should be tested and broken today with this setup.

April 15th 2009 Posted to GBP, Reports, USD, forex | Comments (0) |  Email This Post